🔗 Share this article

Just two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or a cause for the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

As per Opta, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.